Returning from vacation, financial advisors from Buenos Aires' financial district gathered at the table to analyze investment alternatives. The upward curve in energy prices and the back-and-forth with the new INDEC index to measure them have once again put the focus on inflation's behavior, which in 2026 has become the key benchmark. January inflation finally exceeded expectations, standing at 2.9% monthly, to which was added the decision to alter the publication schedule for the new INDEC methodology, according to the Argentine News Agency. The upward price curve had resumed in the middle of the electoral process, and by January the floor had nearly hit the 3 percent mark, constituting the eighth acceleration since the 1.5% low in May 2025. While there is no point of comparison with the 2006 statistics intervention, it is still an unnecessary situation that affects the institution's independence, points out the latest macroeconomic report by CREA. Currency peace. The revival of the inflation rate contrasts with a new currency peace that the economy is experiencing, characterized by a fall in the dollar's value that occurs in parallel with purchases by the BCRA in the foreign exchange market: so far this year, the BCRA has already acquired USD 2.170 million while the dollar is worth ARS 53 less than in December last, all in a context where the country risk is falling, deposits and dollar credit in banks are growing. The virtuous circle in the foreign exchange market after the electoral result was reflected in the reactivation of the placement of negotiable obligations, which reached a maximum for the Milei administration in November 2025: USD 3.066 million issued, and USD 3.526 million in December and January. Similarly, dollar bank credit and deposits are at highs for the current administration, although they were relatively less affected by the electoral dynamic. Quiet dollar, altered prices. But the combination of higher-than-expected inflation and a stable dollar reversed the interest rate equation that had prevailed during the months of instability leading up to the elections. Since October, peso rates have again been above the exchange rate's trajectory but below inflation. For investors, peso-denominated assets are gaining attractiveness in a context of less uncertainty, and the statistics seem to reflect it: in December, Argentines bought USD 2.186 million, a high figure but half of the USD 4.196 million acquired in October. From the agricultural sector's perspective, rates are burdensome in an exchange rate scenario according to the BCRA's Market Expectations Survey and the dynamics of the first months of the year. The opposite occurs with dollar financing, which would now look more attractive even though the 9-10% rates available in the market are higher than in previous years. Parallel to agriculture and livestock, peso financing can be attractive or not, depending on the expected evolution of their product prices in the coming months. In this sense, the price of the different cattle categories is correcting, while that of milk remains lagging behind inflation. It is speculated in the markets that the exchange rate and financial variables show an improvement that can anticipate, after a turbulent 2025, the return of inflation to a downward path in the coming months and a progressive recovery of the activity level. However, to achieve this, it is necessary to finish recovering access to the global financial market to refinance debt maturities. Although there are always imponderables, perhaps the most critical being the international situation and the elections in the United States, it is measured to what extent the Government finally managed to regain economic and political initiative in a year that will be key to strengthening the macroeconomy to face a 2027 with presidential elections.
